I think Verlander is always going to throw 230 IP until he retires, pending injury. I also think he'll still be able to hit mid to upper 90s for a long time
Also Carp was a nobody when he was in Toronto, plus was decimated by injuries (and has thrown like 30 total pitches to date in the 2 years following the Cards' WS wins). He didn't really become a force until like 2003, which I guess like you said is the last decade, but even still he's missed like 2+ full seasons in that time.
based solely on war, here are the pitchers ranked above beckett: doc, cc, unit, vazquez (whoa!), oswalt, pedro, santana, buerhle, pettite, schilling, hudson, mussina, lowe, maddux, haren, and lee. pretty good company, no?
fWAR always overrates Vazquez because fWAR is based on FIP which neutralizes strand%, something that Vazquez has 2500 IP that says he's an outlier on that one for whatever reason. Sure, that's fine company. Lowe, Hudson, and Mussina in the Yankees years aren't great examples but they're all fine pitchers. But all of those guys are ahead of him. I mean he's a fine pitcher but what about Haren? No one talks about Haren the way they talk about Beckett. What about Javy? Lowe and Hudson aren't two guys you're going to think of when you think of dominant pitchers from the 2000s. They're guys that had some fine seasons and lots of above average ones and missed time due to injury. That's exactly what I think of when I think of Beckett: a few fine seasons, not really a workhorse, usually pretty good on IP quality but not necessarily quantity, and a fat bastard.
I should have put money down that Eric Cioe would eventually mention Dan Haren. I know you mentioned Lowe, but he is an example of the opposite... what you are rating higher. From 2002-2010 he was averaging right around 200 IP a season (with a lot of post season in there too) and that is why he has accumulated a healthy career WAR. As for Vazquez, no one said fWAR... did you say fWAR tyke? Not sure where it was grabbed fangraphs or not I believe his rWAR is over 40. I choose not to rate a pitchers IP in one way or another, I choose just to look at the end results (numbers) in determining a pitchers value. I don't know why I'm arguing this with you though, you have underrated players before because of not pitching the way you like as in Zambrano (HE WALKS TOO MANY GUYS) and he will probably end up in the 40+ WAR territory if his future teams just let him go out there and work. The whole point of looking at advanced stats on players is to try and find OBJECTIVE information about them.
i mentioned fwar, just because it is so easy to sort so anyway, can we all agree that beckett has been and still might be a high-level pitcher? i fucking hate the douche, but he had some very good years and it still more than capable of being a serviceable frontline starter. he is (and never will be) a maddux, cc, unit, etc, but he was pretty spectacular from '07-'09 and has been solid since then
fwiw beckett is cuurently ranked as the 25th best active pitcher according to br's elo rater: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/ratings.cgi
Active Batters Top 10: 1. Alex Rodriguez (2667) 2. Albert Pujols (2565) 3. Chipper Jones (2442) 4. Jim Thome (2351) 5. Derek Jeter (2297) 6. Ivan Rodriguez (2261) 7. Manny Ramirez (2255) 8. Scott Rolen (2209) 9. Vladimir Guerrero (2189) 10. Todd Helton (2152)
That umpire form the Rays- Blu Jays game... holy shit. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_05_15_tbamlb_tormlb_1&mode=wrap#
Video: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120515&content_id=31385244&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor Love the fan at the end, LOL
I've never see him do anything like it before, but I've only seen him once this year, a few times in LA and lots in Detroit when he was a full-time closer in only one season.
I remember he chucked a ball into the stands in 2009 after nailing down a particularly difficult save in Tampa. That was cool. I think Rodney is a cool guy.
Yeah I'm glad Lawrie did what he did, and I'm glad the fan threw beer on him. These guys have never had to take responsibility for their shitty performance. Look at Joe West. Guy makes a controversial call every game he umpires and he's the fucking head of the umpires union. I get the "human error" aspect of it but there are far too many mistakes being made by these guys to simply use it as an excuse.
Someday in our lifetime balls and strikes will be regulated by lasers. The umpire will have an earpiece indicating whether it was a ball or strike according to the computer and that will be that. No more 2 foot wide zone for veteran pitchers, no more changing the zone in the middle of a game, no more bias to one side or the other.
That also brings up the question of the depth of the plate. Is the strike zone two or three dimensional? Right now I envision if the ball ever goes through the two dimensional box created by the width of the plate at the front and the appropriate measure of height, the ball is a strike. But is the strike zone actually the width of the plate, multiplied by the depth (length to the bottom corner of the trapezoid) and then the appropriate height above that? If the ball passes through ANY of that three dimensional space when pitched, even if just for a moment, is that ball a strike?
Whatever, some sort of technology. Computers are mostly foreign to me so I'm not up to date on everything. The point is it's going to be out of the umpire's hands. I picture the zone as being a square looking head on and a pentagon from the top. Three dimensional. If a ball catches the back side of the plate but not the front, like for your backdoor curveballs and what have you, that's still a strike to me. Honestly the umpires now don't agree at all on the zone anyway, so it's not like making it digital is going to make things more confusing.
Love the Angels' anouncers on FOX West. ALBERT PUJOLS!!!!!!!!!!!! HAS HIT A HUME RUN !!!!!!!!!!!!!! HIS SECOND FOR THE ANGELS!!!!!!
I CAN'T CUZ ALL I GET IS FOX WEST AND YOUR SHITTY FUCKING PIECE OF SHIT ANGELS GAME EVERY FUCKING DAY I WANT TO WATCH A GAME AND I GET FUCKING ANGELS BASEBALL. AND FUCKING ALBERT PUJOLS THIS PUJOLS THAT PUJOLS JUST MASTURBATED YESTERDAY PUJOLS JUST TOOK A SHIT FUCK HIM AND HIS 300 MILLION DOLLARS
i've been thinking about this a lot lately, and i have concluded that i hope mlb eventually goes to some sort of robot-called strike zone. i recognize the tradition and "the human element", but there is no reason for balls to be called strikes and vice-versa. a strike is a strike, and it should be called as such, regardless of the umpire. if a pitcher wants to K someone, then throw 3 strikes. in the long run, i think it would be good for the game, because the impetus is put solely on the athlete, and has no variation between umpires (see: lawire, humber's perfect game, etc). maybe we wouldn't get any more 20 strikeout outings, but we would get good, honest baseball, where hitters earn their walks (and hits) and pitchers earn their strikeouts. why shouldn't it be done this way?
Or at the very least, umpires need to get together and say "this is the strike zone and we ALL call it this way" and maybe get younger umpires with better vision?
I seem to be the only one on the other side of the fence here. Calls are blown in every sport on a regular basis, it just happens more because there's a call 250 times a game, +/- baserunners/tags/catches/foul-fair. If an ump is shitty at his job he doesn't stay around very long. Sure, two or three blown calls gets blown out of proportion because it's the ninth inning in a close game and some asshole threw a helmet, then some other asshole threw a beer. Beyond the traditional 'human element' - that thing that always gets discussed when an ump blows it - I think we can't overlook the rest of the psychology that gets put into the game when you're dealing with a dynamic strike zone and I appreciate that part of it. Players are forced to react to things outside their control in baseball, and I think that adds depth to their skillset. If you're a pitcher who gets shanked on a call and gives up a HR the next AB because you're rattled, that says something about your ability; not your talent persay, but your ability to play the game. And I think there's more to baseball than talent. It separates baseball from every other sport. So take the 95% success rate that umps have (maybe more, I made that up but it sounds maybe okay) and learn to adjust to the other 5% in a way that helps you win.
I can see your side for the rest of your post but this is patently wrong. The worst umpire in baseball is head of their union. If there is any disciplinary action for them not doing their job correctly, no one knows about it. I know they used to have their strike zones evaluated but I'm not sure if that's the case any more. You've got guys like Angel Hernandez who provoke incidents with players and guys like Joe West who eject anyone and anyone. They both have awful zones, make bad calls on the basepaths, and confront the players, and they're both employed. It's bullshit. I could let the robot zone argument disappear if there were some accountability for their calls. You have to call 97% of pitches within the rulebook strikezone a strike, regardless of situation, pitcher, hitter, etc. If you don't, you get demoted to AAA and they replace you with the guy who is next in line there.
I'd imagine that just like Maddux and Johnson get calls that Dan Haren (I use him because even though he's been around, he isn't even close to the status of Maddux or West) and Dallas Braden never would, 'veteran' umps (no matter how shitty they are) get the same sort of leverage. The upper echelon is a total mess though, you're right.
i also hate how none of them enforce the timing rule between pitches. especially against the red sox.
This is irrelevant but whenever a batter holds up a hand or fist as if he's calling time, every single times he steps into the box, I think he is a douchebag (Jeter)
problem with computer controlled strike zone is different sized batters. human intervention will have to be introduced to scale the strike zone for each hitter. this is really a can of worms waiting to be opened. batters getting struck out calling into question what size zone they have by the computer, etc...
Speaking of bad calls....Rangers just REALLY benefited from one. Diaz threw out Melvin afterwards too.
